The bumper hops harvest forecast for Germany will likely drive more cutbacks to cultivation worldwide

Germany’s total hop yield for 2024 is forecast to hit 48,964 tons, about 19% higher than in 2023 and about 55% larger than 2022’s poor crop year, according to a recent German Hop Growers Association estimate.

Moreover, not only is the quantity in Germany forecast to be higher, but the overall quality of the 2024 crop is expected to be better than in the past two years.

The increase, however, comes at a time when reasonable harvests are also predicted in other major hop-producing countries, and global markets are already facing oversupply. Furthermore, global beer sales are declining and many breweries are already well-stocked with hops.

According to the German Hop Growers Association, however, this is unlikely to have a major impact on prices. Although spot prices are likely to fall, the majority of the crop has already been sold in precontracts at fixed prices. These contracts will likely be mostly fulfilled this year, and not undelivered as in previous years.

But continuing high stock levels will likely lead to further reductions in planting. Hop acreage in the USA has already dropped in the past two years by about 25% and in Australia by about 21%.